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Gimnasia vs Argentinos Jrs Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura · Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:00

Gimnasia

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Argentinos Jrs

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-112.8%0-27.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.6%1-113.4%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.1%2-17.0%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.1%3-12.4%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

Draw 33.1% 32.8% 3.05 +0.9%

Away win 36.1% 45.0% 2.22 -19.9%

Over 2.5 37.6% 41.7% 2.40 -9.8%

Over 3.5 18.0% 21.1% 4.75 -14.5%

BTTS 46.3% 50.0% 2.00 -7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob46.3%

D 33% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia1.0

Argentinos Jrs1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA · PPG 1.43

ARGENTINOS JRS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

46%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia (H) 30.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.7%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +0.9%

Argentinos Jrs (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia face Argentinos Jrs in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Argentinos Jrs 36%, so Argentinos Jrs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gimnasia and 1.2 for Argentinos Jrs (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.33 for Argentinos Jrs. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Gimnasia vs Argentinos Jrs Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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