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Belgrano vs Gimnasia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina logo Argentina flag Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Apertura - 16 Estadio Julio César Villagra· Cordoba Sunday, April 26, 2026 20:30
Belgrano logo Belgrano PPG 1.83
0-1 MISS
Gimnasia logo Gimnasia PPG 1.43
Over2.5· +17.5% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Belgrano face Gimnasia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belgrano a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Gimnasia 16%, so Belgrano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Belgrano and 0.6 for Gimnasia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belgrano are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.43 for Gimnasia. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.6%
Odds: 1.80 EV: +1.9%
Draw 27.7%
Odds: 3.30 EV: -8.6%
Away 15.7%
Odds: 4.70 EV: -26.2%
Model lean: Home
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.35 +17.5%
Over 3.5 22.9% Odds: 4.50 +3.0%
BTTS 49.5% Odds: 2.10 +4.0%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 1-1
4th 0-0
5th 3-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Belgrano
1.84
Gimnasia
0.60

Model Suggestion

Home +1.9% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.
Raw EV leader: Over2.5(+17.5%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

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