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Belgrano vs Gimnasia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 20:30

Belgrano

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gimnasia

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Home 56% chance

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-15.2%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.1%1-19.6%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.8%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.1%3-15.4%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-13.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 55.6% 1.80 +1.9%

Draw 27.7% 30.3% 3.30 -8.6%

Away win 15.7% 21.3% 4.70 -26.2%

Over 2.5 50.0% 42.6% 2.35 +17.5%

Over 3.5 22.9% 22.2% 4.50 +3.0%

BTTS 49.5% 47.6% 2.10 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.8%

#2 1–0 16.1%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belgrano1.8

Gimnasia0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BELGRANO · PPG 1.83

GIMNASIA · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Belgrano (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +1.9%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.6%

Gimnasia (A) 15.7%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belgrano face Gimnasia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belgrano a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Gimnasia 16%, so Belgrano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Belgrano and 0.6 for Gimnasia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belgrano are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.43 for Gimnasia. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Belgrano vs Gimnasia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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