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BFC Preussen vs Babelsberg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

BFC Preussen

PPG 1.57 · HOME

3 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Babelsberg

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.4%0-23.8%0-32.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.9%1-18.5%1-27.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.1%3-15.3%3-24.7%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-14.1%4+-23.5%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 44.4% 2.25 -12.5%

Draw 30.6% 27.4% 3.65 +11.7%

Away win 30.5% 37.7% 2.65 -19.2%

Over 2.5 60.5% 60.6% 1.65 -0.2%

Over 3.5 50.3% 37.7% 2.65 +33.3%

BTTS 58.5% 64.5% 1.55 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-6

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

D 31% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFC Preussen1.9

Babelsberg1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BFC PREUSSEN · PPG 1.57

BABELSBERG · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

BFC Preussen (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -12.5%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +11.7%

Babelsberg (A) 30.5%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

BFC Preussen face Babelsberg in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFC Preussen a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Babelsberg 31%, so BFC Preussen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for BFC Preussen and 1.7 for Babelsberg (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFC Preussen are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.27 for Babelsberg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.3%. This match finished 3-6.

BFC Preussen vs Babelsberg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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