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London City Lionesses W vs Manchester United W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Matchday 1 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

London City Lionesses W

PPG 1.47 · HOME

UPCOMING

Manchester United W

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.6%0-24.7%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.7%1-110.9%1-27.7%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.0%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.5%3-14.9%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.9%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 43.9% 2.28 +1.7%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Away win 31.4% 35.5% 2.82 -11.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.8% 31.3% 3.20 +17.8%

BTTS 61.5% 59.9% 1.67 +2.7%

Home O1.5 48.1% 45.5% 2.20 +5.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 39.2% 2.55 +7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

London City Lionesses W1.6

Manchester United W1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LONDON CITY LIONESSES W · PPG 1.47

MANCHESTER UNITED W · PPG 1.77

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

London City Lionesses W (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +1.7%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Manchester United W (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

London City Lionesses W face Manchester United W in England - FA WSL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives London City Lionesses W a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Manchester United W 31%, so London City Lionesses W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for London City Lionesses W and 1.4 for Manchester United W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, London City Lionesses W are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.77 for Manchester United W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.8%.

London City Lionesses W vs Manchester United W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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