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Chelsea W vs Aston Villa W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Chelsea W

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aston Villa W

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+13.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.4%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.1%1-111.6%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.1%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.7%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 84.7% 1.18 -46.4%

Draw 24.5% 16.9% 5.90 +26.7%

Away win 30.1% 7.4% 13.50 +306.3%

Over 2.5 55.2% 70.4% 1.42 -21.6%

Over 3.5 34.6% 47.6% 2.10 -27.3%

BTTS 58.9% 51.8% 1.93 +13.7%

Home O1.5 46.4% 80.0% 1.25 -42.0%

Away O1.5 38.1% 18.2% 5.50 +109.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.9%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chelsea W1.6

Aston Villa W1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHELSEA W · PPG 2.12

ASTON VILLA W · PPG 1.17

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chelsea W (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -46.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +26.7%

Aston Villa W (A) 30.1%

ODDS 13.50 · IMPLIED 7.4% EV +306.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chelsea W face Aston Villa W in England - FA WSL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chelsea W a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Aston Villa W 30%, so Chelsea W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chelsea W and 1.3 for Aston Villa W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chelsea W are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.17 for Aston Villa W. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +198.1%.

Chelsea W vs Aston Villa W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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