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Yunnan Yukun vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

S. Shenhua

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.8%0-23.1%0-32.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-02.8%1-16.1%1-26.7%1-34.9%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.0%2-16.6%2-27.2%2-35.3%2-4+4.8%3 3-02.2%3-14.8%3-25.2%3-33.8%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-14.3%4+-24.7%4+-33.4%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 52.6% 1.90 -22.9%

Draw 22.6% 25.0% 4.00 -5.8%

Away win 36.8% 31.3% 3.20 +17.8%

Over 2.5 69.8% 75.2% 1.33 -7.2%

Over 3.5 63.3% 55.6% 1.80 +13.9%

BTTS 66.7% 76.9% 1.30 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob66.7%

A 37% / xG 2.2-2.2 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 1–1 6.1%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 2–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yunnan Yukun2.2

S. Shenhua2.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.3%

Form & verdict PPG

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.40

S. SHENHUA · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Yunnan Yukun (H) 40.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -22.9%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.8%

S. Shenhua (A) 36.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yunnan Yukun face S. Shenhua in China - Super League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yunnan Yukun a 41% chance, the draw 23% and S. Shenhua 37%, so Yunnan Yukun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Yunnan Yukun and 2.2 for S. Shenhua (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.60 for S. Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Yunnan Yukun vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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