Today / Spain - Segunda División / Real Sociedad B vs Mirandes

Real Sociedad B vs Mirandes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 40 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Real Sociedad B

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mirandes

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.6%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-112.0%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.4%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-14.9%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 32.8% 3.05 +50.7%

Draw 25.9% 28.6% 3.50 -5.6%

Away win 24.7% 45.9% 2.18 -27.7%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 27.4% 35.7% 2.80 -14.0%

BTTS 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 7.1%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Sociedad B1.6

Mirandes1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOCIEDAD B · PPG 1.42

MIRANDES · PPG 0.84

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.42) > Away POOR (0.84)

Win probability 1X2

Real Sociedad B (H) 49.4%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +50.7%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.6%

Mirandes (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Sociedad B face Mirandes in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Sociedad B a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Mirandes 25%, so Real Sociedad B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Real Sociedad B and 1.1 for Mirandes (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Sociedad B are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 0.84 for Mirandes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +50.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Real Sociedad B vs Mirandes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División Predictions