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Sesvete vs Dugopolje Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:45

Sesvete

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Dugopolje

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-110.9%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.1%1-112.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-17.0%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.1%3-12.6%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Draw 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

Away win 23.0% 33.3% 3.00 -18.6%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 3.5 10.5% 23.1% 4.33 -32.7%

BTTS 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 1–0 19.1%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sesvete1.1

Dugopolje0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SESVETE · PPG 2.00

DUGOPOLJE · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=45.4%

Win probability 1X2

Sesvete (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.1%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -5.5%

Dugopolje (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sesvete face Dugopolje in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sesvete a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Dugopolje 23%, so Sesvete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sesvete and 0.6 for Dugopolje (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sesvete are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.07 for Dugopolje. This match finished 1-2.

Sesvete vs Dugopolje Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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