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Shandong T. vs Chongqing T. Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:35

Shandong T.

PPG 1.83 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chongqing T.

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-110.7%0-26.2%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.3%1-113.1%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.9%2-18.0%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.8%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 66.2% 1.51 -43.8%

Draw 28.1% 25.6% 3.90 +5.8%

Away win 34.7% 17.4% 5.75 +99.5%

Over 2.5 47.2% 58.8% 1.70 -19.8%

Over 3.5 21.6% 36.4% 2.75 -24.4%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shandong T.1.2

Chongqing T.1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANDONG T. · PPG 1.83

CHONGQING T. · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Shandong T. (H) 37.2%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -43.8%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +5.8%

Chongqing T. (A) 34.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +99.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong T. face Chongqing T. in China - Super League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong T. a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Chongqing T. 35%, so Shandong T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Shandong T. and 1.2 for Chongqing T. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong T. are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.60 for Chongqing T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +99.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Shandong T. vs Chongqing T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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