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Hibernian vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group · Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Hibernian

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Motherwell

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.7%0-25.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.9%1-112.8%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.4%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.2%3-13.7%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 39.1% 2.56 +3.4%

Draw 28.2% 29.9% 3.35 -3.3%

Away win 31.4% 38.2% 2.62 -17.7%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Over 3.5 24.0% 32.3% 3.10 -15.4%

BTTS 52.1% 60.6% 1.65 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.1%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1✓ 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hibernian1.3

Motherwell1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HIBERNIAN · PPG 1.67

MOTHERWELL · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Hibernian (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +3.4%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.3%

Motherwell (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hibernian face Motherwell in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hibernian a 40% chance, the draw 28% and Motherwell 31%, so Hibernian are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hibernian and 1.2 for Motherwell (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hibernian are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.22 for Motherwell. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Hibernian vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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