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Falkirk vs Rangers Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group · Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Falkirk

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rangers

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.8%0-25.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.3%1-111.6%1-28.1%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.7%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.3%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 26.7% 3.75 +45.1%

Draw 25.6% 26.3% 3.80 -1.6%

Away win 35.7% 54.1% 1.85 -34.0%

Over 2.5 59.0% 61.7% 1.62 -4.4%

Over 3.5 32.6% 39.2% 2.55 -16.9%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkirk1.5

Rangers1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKIRK · PPG 1.37

RANGERS · PPG 1.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

63%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.37) vs Away GOOD (1.72)

Win probability 1X2

Falkirk (H) 38.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +45.1%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -1.6%

Rangers (A) 35.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkirk face Rangers in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkirk a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Rangers 36%, so Falkirk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Falkirk and 1.4 for Rangers (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkirk are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.72 for Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 2-5.

Falkirk vs Rangers Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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