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Celtic vs Hearts Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Championship Group · Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Celtic

PPG 2.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hearts

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.9%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.5%1-112.5%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-18.8%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 64.1% 1.56 -29.3%

Draw 27.9% 24.4% 4.10 +8.6%

Away win 26.7% 18.5% 5.40 +26.5%

Over 2.5 52.1% 64.5% 1.55 -19.2%

Over 3.5 26.2% 42.6% 2.35 -23.1%

BTTS 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celtic1.4

Hearts1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTIC · PPG 2.39

HEARTS · PPG 1.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.39) > Away GOOD (1.72)

Win probability 1X2

Celtic (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -29.3%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +8.6%

Hearts (A) 26.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celtic face Hearts in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celtic a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Hearts 27%, so Celtic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Celtic and 1.2 for Hearts (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celtic are averaging 2.39 points per game versus 1.72 for Hearts. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Celtic vs Hearts Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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