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Kauno Zalgiris vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:15

Kauno Zalgiris

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Siauliai

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.71) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-12.4%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.7%1-16.2%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.1%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.2%3-17.1%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.1%4+-18.7%4+-22.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 9.2% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 39.8% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 68% / xG 2.6-0.6 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 3–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kauno Zalgiris2.6

Siauliai0.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KAUNO ZALGIRIS · PPG 2.00

SIAULIAI · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.71) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kauno Zalgiris (H) 68.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Siauliai (A) 9.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Zalgiris face Siauliai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Zalgiris a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Siauliai 9%, so Kauno Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Kauno Zalgiris and 0.6 for Siauliai (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Zalgiris are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.71 for Siauliai. This match finished 0-0.

Kauno Zalgiris vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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