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Inhulets vs Prykarpattia Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:00

Inhulets

PPG 1.69 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Prykarpattia

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-19.1%0-24.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-112.7%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.8%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.1%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 48.5% 2.06 -0.5%

Draw 27.2% 32.7% 3.06 -10.1%

Away win 24.5% 30.1% 3.32 -11.2%

Over 2.5 46.9% 42.7% 2.34 +9.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% 22.7% 4.40 -5.6%

BTTS 51.6% 50.3% 1.99 +2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0✓ 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inhulets1.4

Prykarpattia0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INHULETS · PPG 1.69

PRYKARPATTIA · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Inhulets (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -0.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.06 · IMPLIED 32.7% EV -10.1%

Prykarpattia (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.32 · IMPLIED 30.1% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inhulets face Prykarpattia in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inhulets a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Prykarpattia 25%, so Inhulets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Inhulets and 0.9 for Prykarpattia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inhulets are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.31 for Prykarpattia. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Inhulets vs Prykarpattia Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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