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Dianella WE vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 09:00

Dianella WE

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Balcatta

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.4%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.6%1-14.5%1-22.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.6%2-17.4%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-18.1%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-015.6%4+-115.3%4+-27.5%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.8% 69.4% 1.44 -0.9%

Draw 22.0% 22.7% 4.40 -1.9%

Away win 9.2% 18.2% 5.50 -29.6%

Over 2.5 68.3% 71.4% 1.40 -4.4%

Over 3.5 61.6% 52.4% 1.91 +17.7%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.7%

H 69% / xG 3.3-1.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 2–1 7.4%

#5 4–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dianella WE3.3

Balcatta1.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.3% · O3.5 PROB 61.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DIANELLA WE · PPG 1.25

BALCATTA · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Dianella WE (H) 68.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -0.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.9%

Balcatta (A) 9.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dianella WE face Balcatta in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dianella WE a 69% chance, the draw 22% and Balcatta 9%, so Dianella WE are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Dianella WE and 1.0 for Balcatta (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dianella WE are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.00 for Balcatta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Dianella WE vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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