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Perth Glory B vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 08:00

Perth Glory B

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bayswater

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.2%0-24.9%0-33.1%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.6%1-18.8%1-28.4%1-35.3%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.9%2-17.5%2-27.1%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.2%3-14.2%3-24.0%3-32.6%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.6%4+-22.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 29.4% 3.40 +21.0%

Draw 24.8% 27.0% 3.70 -4.9%

Away win 39.6% 54.6% 1.83 -27.5%

Over 2.5 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Over 3.5 48.6% 54.6% 1.83 -11.1%

BTTS 62.5% 73.5% 1.36 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.5%

A 40% / xG 1.7-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth Glory B1.7

Bayswater1.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH GLORY B · PPG 1.50

BAYSWATER · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Perth Glory B (H) 35.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +21.0%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.9%

Bayswater (A) 39.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth Glory B face Bayswater in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth Glory B a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Bayswater 40%, so Bayswater are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Perth Glory B and 1.9 for Bayswater (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth Glory B are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Bayswater. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Perth Glory B vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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