Today / Australia - Western Australia NPL / Western Knights vs Stirling

Western Knights vs Stirling Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:00

Western Knights

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stirling

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.1%0-22.4%0-31.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-02.3%1-15.2%1-25.7%1-34.2%1-4+4.0%2 2-02.8%2-16.3%2-27.0%2-35.2%2-4+4.8%3 3-02.3%3-15.1%3-25.6%3-34.2%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-15.5%4+-26.1%4+-34.5%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 38.2% 2.62 +9.8%

Draw 23.3% 28.6% 3.50 -11.1%

Away win 34.7% 45.5% 2.20 -23.7%

Over 2.5 73.3% 69.4% 1.44 +5.5%

Over 3.5 68.2% 50.0% 2.00 +36.4%

BTTS 66.7% 71.4% 1.40 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob66.7%

H 42% / xG 2.4-2.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 2–1✓ 6.3%

#3 1–1 5.2%

#4 1–2 5.7%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Western Knights2.4

Stirling2.2

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 68.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTERN KNIGHTS · PPG 2.50

STIRLING · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.50), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Western Knights (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +9.8%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.1%

Stirling (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Western Knights face Stirling in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Western Knights a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Stirling 35%, so Western Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Western Knights and 2.2 for Stirling (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Western Knights are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.25 for Stirling. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Western Knights vs Stirling Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Western Australia NPL Predictions