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Sorrento vs Perth SC Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:00

Sorrento

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Perth SC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.5%0-25.3%0-33.3%0-4+2.4%1 1-04.8%1-19.1%1-28.6%1-35.4%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.9%2-17.4%2-27.0%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.1%3-14.0%3-23.8%3-32.4%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.4%4+-22.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 39.8% — — —

Over 2.5 63.3% — — —

Over 3.5 47.0% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.5%

A 40% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2✓ 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sorrento1.6

Perth SC1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SORRENTO · PPG 1.40

PERTH SC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sorrento (H) 35.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Perth SC (A) 39.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sorrento face Perth SC in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sorrento a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Perth SC 40%, so Perth SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sorrento and 1.9 for Perth SC (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sorrento are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Perth SC. This match finished 1-2.

Sorrento vs Perth SC Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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