Today / Australia - Western Australia NPL / Perth RedStar vs Armadale

Perth RedStar vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:00

Perth RedStar

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Armadale

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.2%0-20.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-02.8%1-14.1%1-23.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.7%2-16.8%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.2%3-17.5%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-114.4%4+-210.5%4+-35.1%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Draw 20.6% 25.0% 4.00 -10.6%

Away win 19.6% 22.7% 4.40 -8.3%

Over 2.5 75.8% 75.2% 1.33 +0.8%

Over 3.5 70.1% 54.6% 1.83 +28.3%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.0%

H 60% / xG 3.3-1.4 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 6.8%

#3 4–1 6.2%

#4 3–2 5.4%

#5 3–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth RedStar3.3

Armadale1.4

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.8% · O3.5 PROB 70.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH REDSTAR · PPG 2.33

ARMADALE · PPG 0.20

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=59.7%

Win probability 1X2

Perth RedStar (H) 59.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -6.3%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.6%

Armadale (A) 19.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth RedStar face Armadale in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth RedStar a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Armadale 20%, so Perth RedStar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Perth RedStar and 1.4 for Armadale (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth RedStar are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.20 for Armadale. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Perth RedStar vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Western Australia NPL Predictions