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Monza U20 vs Frosinone U20 Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Monza U20

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Frosinone U20

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+52.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.6%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.9%1-110.5%1-24.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.0%3-16.2%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.9% 40.0% 2.50 +52.3%

Draw 22.0% 29.0% 3.45 -24.1%

Away win 17.1% 37.6% 2.66 -54.5%

Over 2.5 52.1% 60.6% 1.65 -14.0%

Over 3.5 29.9% 38.5% 2.60 -22.3%

BTTS 49.6% 66.7% 1.50 -25.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.6%

H 61% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.9%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monza U201.9

Frosinone U200.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MONZA U20 · PPG 1.13

FROSINONE U20 · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Monza U20 (H) 60.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +52.3%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -24.1%

Frosinone U20 (A) 17.1%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -54.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monza U20 face Frosinone U20 in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monza U20 a 61% chance, the draw 22% and Frosinone U20 17%, so Monza U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Monza U20 and 0.9 for Frosinone U20 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monza U20 are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.50 for Frosinone U20. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +52.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Monza U20 vs Frosinone U20 Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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