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Belmont Swansea vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 05:00

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Valentine

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.2%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.1%1-14.0%1-22.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.3%2-16.8%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.0%3-17.7%3-25.0%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-115.6%4+-210.2%4+-34.4%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% 71.4% 1.40 -13.9%

Draw 20.3% 21.7% 4.60 -4.0%

Away win 18.2% 20.0% 5.00 -5.4%

Over 2.5 73.3% 75.2% 1.33 -2.5%

Over 3.5 69.0% 57.8% 1.73 +19.4%

BTTS 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.5%

H 62% / xG 3.4-1.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 6.8%

#3 4–1 6.6%

#4 3–0 6.0%

#5 2–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belmont Swansea3.4

Valentine1.3

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 69.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.86

VALENTINE · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Belmont Swansea (H) 61.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -13.9%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -4.0%

Valentine (A) 18.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belmont Swansea face Valentine in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belmont Swansea a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Valentine 18%, so Belmont Swansea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Belmont Swansea and 1.3 for Valentine (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belmont Swansea are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.50 for Valentine. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Belmont Swansea vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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