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Lambton Jaffas vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 04:00

Lambton Jaffas

PPG 0.71 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kahibah

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.3%0-21.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-03.8%1-16.1%1-24.8%1-32.5%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.1%2-18.1%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.5%3-17.1%3-25.6%3-33.0%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-18.9%4+-27.1%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 76.9% 1.30 -31.5%

Draw 23.1% 20.0% 5.00 +9.3%

Away win 24.2% 15.4% 6.50 +34.4%

Over 2.5 66.1% 75.2% 1.33 -12.1%

Over 3.5 61.1% 55.2% 1.81 +10.6%

BTTS 63.0% 66.7% 1.50 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 53% / xG 2.6-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 7.1%

#3 1–1 6.1%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lambton Jaffas2.6

Kahibah1.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 61.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LAMBTON JAFFAS · PPG 0.71

KAHIBAH · PPG 1.20

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.71) vs Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Lambton Jaffas (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -31.5%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.3%

Kahibah (A) 24.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lambton Jaffas face Kahibah in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lambton Jaffas a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Kahibah 24%, so Lambton Jaffas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Lambton Jaffas and 1.6 for Kahibah (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lambton Jaffas are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.20 for Kahibah. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 4-0.

Lambton Jaffas vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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