Today / Australia - Northern NSW NPL / Adamstown R. vs Charlestown A.

Adamstown R. vs Charlestown A. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 04:00

Adamstown R.

PPG 0.33 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Charlestown A.

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.6%0-25.3%0-34.1%0-4+4.1%1 1-03.2%1-17.4%1-28.5%1-36.6%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.6%2-15.9%2-26.9%2-35.3%2-4+5.2%3 3-01.4%3-13.2%3-23.7%3-32.8%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.8%4+-22.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 34.5% 2.90 -8.3%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 45.6% 48.8% 2.05 -6.5%

Over 2.5 63.3% 69.4% 1.44 -8.8%

Over 3.5 54.9% 48.3% 2.07 +13.6%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.0%

A 46% / xG 1.6-2.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.5%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adamstown R.1.6

Charlestown A.2.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 54.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ADAMSTOWN R. · PPG 0.33

CHARLESTOWN A. · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Adamstown R. (H) 29.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Charlestown A. (A) 45.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adamstown R. face Charlestown A. in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adamstown R. a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Charlestown A. 46%, so Charlestown A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Adamstown R. and 2.3 for Charlestown A. (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adamstown R. are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.40 for Charlestown A.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Adamstown R. vs Charlestown A. Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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