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FC Cajamarca vs S. Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 20:00

FC Cajamarca

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

S. Cristal

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+22.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.6%0-24.6%0-32.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.8%1-19.6%1-28.0%1-34.5%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.9%3-14.8%3-24.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.1%4+-22.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 37.3% 2.68 +5.1%

Draw 25.6% 29.9% 3.35 -8.5%

Away win 35.3% 39.7% 2.52 -11.0%

Over 2.5 63.3% 51.8% 1.93 +22.2%

Over 3.5 44.1% 29.9% 3.35 +47.7%

BTTS 60.1% 58.8% 1.70 +2.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.1%

H 39% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cajamarca1.7

S. Cristal1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.33

S. CRISTAL · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

FC Cajamarca (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +5.1%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.5%

S. Cristal (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cajamarca face S. Cristal in Peru - Primera División on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cajamarca a 39% chance, the draw 26% and S. Cristal 35%, so FC Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FC Cajamarca and 1.7 for S. Cristal (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cajamarca are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.71 for S. Cristal. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +47.7%. This match finished 3-1.

FC Cajamarca vs S. Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions