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Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 17 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 19:00

Dundalk

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.9%0-27.5%0-33.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.9%1-112.0%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.8%2-17.2%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 32.3% 3.10 +9.1%

Draw 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Away win 39.9% 45.9% 2.18 -13.0%

Over 2.5 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Over 3.5 29.3% 33.9% 2.95 -8.1%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundalk1.2

Shamrock Rovers1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDALK · PPG 1.75

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Dundalk (H) 35.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +9.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

Shamrock Rovers (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundalk face Shamrock Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundalk a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Shamrock Rovers 40%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Dundalk and 1.5 for Shamrock Rovers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundalk are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Shamrock Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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