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UC Dublin vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:45

UC Dublin

PPG 2.29 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bray Wanderers

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 43.9% — a clear edge.

+18.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-17.7%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.1%1-111.7%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-18.9%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.5%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 43.9% 2.28 +18.3%

Draw 26.4% 31.7% 3.15 -10.1%

Away win 21.8% 31.7% 3.15 -18.8%

Over 2.5 45.7% 48.8% 2.05 -6.3%

Over 3.5 18.9% 27.4% 3.65 -18.6%

BTTS 48.1% 57.1% 1.75 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.1%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 12.2%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UC Dublin1.5

Bray Wanderers0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UC DUBLIN · PPG 2.29

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 0.57

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=51.9%

Win probability 1X2

UC Dublin (H) 51.9%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +18.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -10.1%

Bray Wanderers (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

UC Dublin face Bray Wanderers in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UC Dublin a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Bray Wanderers 22%, so UC Dublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for UC Dublin and 0.7 for Bray Wanderers (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UC Dublin are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.57 for Bray Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 3-4.

UC Dublin vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions