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Treaty Utd vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:45

Treaty Utd

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Finn Harps

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-113.9%0-26.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.0%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.8%2-16.6%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 43.5% 2.30 -19.7%

Draw 31.8% 32.3% 3.10 -1.4%

Away win 33.3% 31.3% 3.20 +6.6%

Over 2.5 34.7% 47.6% 2.10 -27.1%

Over 3.5 13.2% 26.0% 3.85 -29.5%

BTTS 48.1% 55.6% 1.80 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 0–1 13.9%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treaty Utd1.0

Finn Harps1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TREATY UTD · PPG 1.33

FINN HARPS · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Treaty Utd (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.7%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -1.4%

Finn Harps (A) 33.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Treaty Utd face Finn Harps in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treaty Utd a 35% chance, the draw 32% and Finn Harps 33%, so Treaty Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Treaty Utd and 1.0 for Finn Harps (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treaty Utd are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.71 for Finn Harps. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Treaty Utd vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions