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Kerry vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:45

Kerry

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Wexford

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-114.8%0-27.6%0-32.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.1%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.0%2-16.1%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.8%3-11.9%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 30.8% 3.25 +12.4%

Draw 31.8% 31.7% 3.15 +0.2%

Away win 33.7% 44.4% 2.25 -24.2%

Over 2.5 34.7% 48.8% 2.05 -28.9%

Over 3.5 13.2% 27.4% 3.65 -31.1%

BTTS 48.1% 57.1% 1.75 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 1–0 13.1%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry0.9

Wexford1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.29

WEXFORD · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 34.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +12.4%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +0.2%

Wexford (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face Wexford in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 35% chance, the draw 32% and Wexford 34%, so Kerry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Kerry and 1.0 for Wexford (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.86 for Wexford. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Kerry vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions