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Waterford vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 17 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:45

Waterford

PPG 0.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Derry City

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-114.5%0-29.9%0-34.5%0-4+2.1%1 1-09.3%1-112.7%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.1%2-15.6%2-23.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.2%3-11.6%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 22.0% 4.55 +18.9%

Draw 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

Away win 42.4% 58.5% 1.71 -27.5%

Over 2.5 45.7% 54.1% 1.85 -15.4%

Over 3.5 19.0% 30.8% 3.25 -22.9%

BTTS 49.7% 55.6% 1.80 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.7%

A 42% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–1 14.5%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 0–2 9.9%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waterford0.9

Derry City1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WATERFORD · PPG 0.71

DERRY CITY · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

50%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.71), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Waterford (H) 28.9%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +18.9%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +4.6%

Derry City (A) 42.4%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waterford face Derry City in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waterford a 29% chance, the draw 29% and Derry City 42%, so Derry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Waterford and 1.4 for Derry City (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waterford are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 0.88 for Derry City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Waterford vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions