Today / Ireland - Premier Division / St. Patricks vs Shelbourne

St. Patricks vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 17 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:45

St. Patricks

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Shelbourne

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 53% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+20.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.4%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.3%1-19.4%1-24.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.0%3-17.0%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-16.1%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 52.6% 1.90 -0.1%

Draw 25.4% 28.6% 3.50 -6.7%

Away win 22.0% 25.6% 3.90 -8.5%

Over 2.5 60.1% 50.0% 2.00 +20.2%

Over 3.5 38.0% 28.2% 3.55 +34.9%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Patricks2.1

Shelbourne1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 2.38

SHELBOURNE · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.38) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

St. Patricks (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -0.1%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.7%

Shelbourne (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Patricks face Shelbourne in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Patricks a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Shelbourne 22%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for St. Patricks and 1.0 for Shelbourne (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Patricks are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 2.00 for Shelbourne. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.9%. This match finished 0-1.

St. Patricks vs Shelbourne Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions