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Bohemians vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 17 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:45

Bohemians

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 53% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.1%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.7%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.6%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.4%3-15.3%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 66.2% 1.51 -22.4%

Draw 25.0% 25.6% 3.90 -1.5%

Away win 23.6% 15.4% 6.50 +32.0%

Over 2.5 52.3% 52.6% 1.90 -0.6%

Over 3.5 27.0% 30.8% 3.25 -7.3%

BTTS 52.2% 52.4% 1.91 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1✓ 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bohemians1.6

Drogheda Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.38

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

53%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Bohemians (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -22.4%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.5%

Drogheda Utd (A) 23.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bohemians face Drogheda Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bohemians a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Drogheda Utd 24%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bohemians and 1.0 for Drogheda Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bohemians are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.14 for Drogheda Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Bohemians vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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