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Castellon vs Cadiz Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 40 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:30

Castellon

PPG 2.05 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Cadiz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.9%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-110.7%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.8%3-15.9%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 78.1% 1.28 -32.8%

Draw 25.5% 18.9% 5.30 +21.1%

Away win 22.0% 10.2% 9.80 +69.4%

Over 2.5 52.3% 69.4% 1.44 -24.7%

Over 3.5 28.4% 48.8% 2.05 -25.1%

BTTS 52.1% 57.8% 1.73 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 52% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.7%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Castellon1.8

Cadiz0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTELLON · PPG 2.05

CADIZ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.05) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Castellon (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -32.8%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +21.1%

Cadiz (A) 22.0%

ODDS 9.80 · IMPLIED 10.2% EV +69.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Castellon face Cadiz in Spain - Segunda División on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castellon a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Cadiz 22%, so Castellon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Castellon and 0.9 for Cadiz (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castellon are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 1.00 for Cadiz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +69.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Castellon vs Cadiz Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División Predictions