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Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 33 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:00

Al Taawon

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Riyadh

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.2%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.8%1-17.8%1-24.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-19.6%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.8%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-18.4%4+-24.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.5% 58.8% 1.70 -0.5%

Draw 21.7% 26.7% 3.75 -11.2%

Away win 19.8% 21.7% 4.60 -5.3%

Over 2.5 63.3% 58.8% 1.70 +7.6%

Over 3.5 45.1% 37.0% 2.70 +21.8%

BTTS 58.6% 61.7% 1.62 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.6%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 9.5%

#3 1–1✓ 7.8%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Taawon2.4

Al Riyadh1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL TAAWON · PPG 1.56

AL RIYADH · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=58.5%

Win probability 1X2

Al Taawon (H) 58.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -0.5%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.2%

Al Riyadh (A) 19.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Taawon face Al Riyadh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Taawon a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Al Riyadh 20%, so Al Taawon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Al Taawon and 1.0 for Al Riyadh (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Taawon are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.56 for Al Riyadh. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Al Taawon vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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