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Wiener SC vs Oberwart Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 31 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:30

Wiener SC

PPG 1.69 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Oberwart

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.7%0-24.9%0-33.4%0-4+2.9%1 1-03.8%1-18.0%1-28.4%1-35.8%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.3%2-16.8%2-27.1%2-35.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-01.9%3-13.9%3-24.1%3-32.8%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.4%4+-22.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 35.7% 2.80 -1.4%

Draw 25.0% 28.6% 3.50 -7.5%

Away win 39.9% 47.6% 2.10 -16.2%

Over 2.5 63.3% 65.4% 1.53 -3.1%

Over 3.5 52.6% 46.1% 2.17 +14.1%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.0%

A 40% / xG 1.7-2.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wiener SC1.7

Oberwart2.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WIENER SC · PPG 1.69

OBERWART · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Wiener SC (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -1.4%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.5%

Oberwart (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wiener SC face Oberwart in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wiener SC a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Oberwart 40%, so Oberwart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wiener SC and 2.1 for Oberwart (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wiener SC are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.23 for Oberwart. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Wiener SC vs Oberwart Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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