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Kremser vs TWL Elektra Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 31 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:30

Kremser

PPG 2.00 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

TWL Elektra

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 94.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.0%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.5%1-13.3%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.3%2-15.7%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.0%3-16.6%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-027.5%4+-114.0%4+-23.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.4% 94.3% 1.06 -23.3%

Draw 20.1% 8.3% 12.00 +84.7%

Away win 7.6% 5.3% 19.00 +26.6%

Over 2.5 63.3% 80.0% 1.25 -20.9%

Over 3.5 56.3% 62.1% 1.61 -9.4%

BTTS 48.1% 41.0% 2.44 +17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.1%

H 72% / xG 3.5-0.5 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.0%

#2 4–0 11.3%

#3 2–0 11.3%

#4 5–0 7.8%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kremser3.5

TWL Elektra0.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 56.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KREMSER · PPG 2.00

TWL ELEKTRA · PPG 0.43

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kremser (H) 72.4%

ODDS 1.06 · IMPLIED 94.3% EV -23.3%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +84.7%

TWL Elektra (A) 7.6%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kremser face TWL Elektra in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kremser a 72% chance, the draw 20% and TWL Elektra 8%, so Kremser are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Kremser and 0.5 for TWL Elektra (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kremser are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.43 for TWL Elektra. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +84.7%. This match finished 5-1.

Kremser vs TWL Elektra Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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