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Donau vs Traiskirchen Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 31 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:30

Donau

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Traiskirchen

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.6%0-24.6%0-33.1%0-4+2.5%1 1-04.0%1-18.1%1-28.2%1-35.5%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.5%2-17.1%2-27.2%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.1%3-14.2%3-24.2%3-32.9%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.8%4+-22.8%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 36.4% 2.75 -2.1%

Draw 24.8% 27.8% 3.60 -6.4%

Away win 39.6% 47.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Over 2.5 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Over 3.5 52.4% 45.2% 2.21 +15.8%

BTTS 63.0% 70.4% 1.42 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

A 40% / xG 1.8-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Donau1.8

Traiskirchen2.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 52.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DONAU · PPG 2.00

TRAISKIRCHEN · PPG 1.46

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.46)

Win probability 1X2

Donau (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.1%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.4%

Traiskirchen (A) 39.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Donau face Traiskirchen in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Donau a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Traiskirchen 40%, so Traiskirchen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Donau and 2.0 for Traiskirchen (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Donau are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.46 for Traiskirchen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Donau vs Traiskirchen Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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