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Favoritner AC vs Neusiedl Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 31 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:10

Favoritner AC

PPG 1.46 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Neusiedl

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.6%0-23.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.9%1-19.1%1-26.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.9%3-15.9%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.7%4+-23.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 47.6% 2.10 +1.6%

Draw 25.5% 27.0% 3.70 -3.4%

Away win 26.1% 36.4% 2.75 -16.9%

Over 2.5 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Over 3.5 46.5% 45.7% 2.19 +1.8%

BTTS 62.0% 69.9% 1.43 -11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.0%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Favoritner AC2.0

Neusiedl1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FAVORITNER AC · PPG 1.46

NEUSIEDL · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.46) > Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Favoritner AC (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +1.6%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.4%

Neusiedl (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Favoritner AC face Neusiedl in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Favoritner AC a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Neusiedl 26%, so Favoritner AC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Favoritner AC and 1.5 for Neusiedl (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Favoritner AC are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.69 for Neusiedl. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Favoritner AC vs Neusiedl Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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