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Union Mauer vs Leobendorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 31 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:00

Union Mauer

PPG 1.07 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Leobendorf

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-114.5%0-210.2%0-34.8%0-4+2.3%1 1-09.0%1-112.6%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.9%2-15.4%2-23.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.1%3-11.6%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% 26.3% 3.80 -0.3%

Draw 28.8% 28.6% 3.50 +0.5%

Away win 45.0% 57.1% 1.75 -21.3%

Over 2.5 45.9% 63.7% 1.57 -27.9%

Over 3.5 19.4% 42.0% 2.38 -32.3%

BTTS 49.7% 65.4% 1.53 -24.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.7%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 14.5%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 0–2 10.2%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Mauer0.9

Leobendorf1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION MAUER · PPG 1.07

LEOBENDORF · PPG 1.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.93) vs Home AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Union Mauer (H) 26.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.3%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.5%

Leobendorf (A) 45.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Mauer face Leobendorf in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Mauer a 26% chance, the draw 29% and Leobendorf 45%, so Leobendorf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Union Mauer and 1.4 for Leobendorf (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Mauer are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.93 for Leobendorf. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Union Mauer vs Leobendorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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