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Opatija vs C. Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 15:30

Opatija

PPG 1.36 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

C. Zmijavci

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-112.2%0-24.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.8%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.0%2-17.0%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.2%3-12.5%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 52.6% 1.90 -19.1%

Draw 33.0% 32.3% 3.10 +2.3%

Away win 24.4% 26.7% 3.75 -5.1%

Over 2.5 34.7% 44.4% 2.25 -21.9%

Over 3.5 11.8% 25.0% 4.00 -31.7%

BTTS 48.1% 50.0% 2.00 -3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.8%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Opatija1.1

C. Zmijavci0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 11.8%

Form & verdict PPG

OPATIJA · PPG 1.36

C. ZMIJAVCI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Opatija (H) 42.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -19.1%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +2.3%

C. Zmijavci (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Opatija face C. Zmijavci in Croatia - First NL on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Opatija a 43% chance, the draw 33% and C. Zmijavci 24%, so Opatija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Opatija and 0.8 for C. Zmijavci (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Opatija are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.00 for C. Zmijavci. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Opatija vs C. Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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