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Araz vs Kapaz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 15:30

Araz

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kapaz

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.6%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.9%1-111.4%1-25.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.7%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.3%3-15.6%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 48.8% 2.05 +5.4%

Draw 25.0% 31.3% 3.20 -12.0%

Away win 23.6% 29.0% 3.45 -11.2%

Over 2.5 52.3% 51.8% 1.93 +0.9%

Over 3.5 29.8% 30.8% 3.25 -1.9%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 9.3%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Araz1.7

Kapaz1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAZ · PPG 1.53

KAPAZ · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Araz (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +5.4%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.0%

Kapaz (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Araz face Kapaz in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Araz a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Kapaz 24%, so Araz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Araz and 1.0 for Kapaz (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Araz are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.88 for Kapaz. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Araz vs Kapaz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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