Today / Croatia - First NL / Rudes vs Cibalia

Rudes vs Cibalia Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 13:45

Rudes

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Cibalia

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-110.9%0-24.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.1%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.6%2-17.8%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 63.7% 1.57 -30.8%

Draw 31.0% 29.4% 3.40 +5.4%

Away win 24.9% 18.5% 5.40 +20.7%

Over 2.5 39.8% 48.8% 2.05 -18.4%

Over 3.5 14.4% 25.0% 4.00 -25.4%

BTTS 48.1% 45.5% 2.20 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 1–0 16.1%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rudes1.2

Cibalia0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RUDES · PPG 2.40

CIBALIA · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=44.1%

Win probability 1X2

Rudes (H) 44.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -30.8%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +5.4%

Cibalia (A) 24.9%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rudes face Cibalia in Croatia - First NL on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rudes a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Cibalia 25%, so Rudes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Rudes and 0.8 for Cibalia (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rudes are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.07 for Cibalia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Rudes vs Cibalia Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions