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Karvan vs Qabala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 13:00

Karvan

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Qabala

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-114.0%0-28.5%0-33.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.0%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.2%2-16.3%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.6%3-12.0%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 22.2% 4.50 +36.4%

Draw 31.6% 27.8% 3.60 +13.8%

Away win 38.1% 59.9% 1.67 -36.4%

Over 2.5 45.4% 51.8% 1.93 -12.4%

Over 3.5 17.2% 30.3% 3.30 -25.9%

BTTS 49.7% 54.6% 1.83 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.7%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karvan0.9

Qabala1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KARVAN · PPG 0.50

QABALA · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.50), Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Karvan (H) 30.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +36.4%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +13.8%

Qabala (A) 38.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -36.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karvan face Qabala in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karvan a 30% chance, the draw 32% and Qabala 38%, so Qabala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Karvan and 1.2 for Qabala (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karvan are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.56 for Qabala. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +36.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Karvan vs Qabala Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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