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UCSA vs Bukovyna Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 12:00

UCSA

PPG 1.31 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Bukovyna

PPG 2.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.85) vs Home AVERAGE (1.31)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-115.7%0-213.6%0-37.9%0-4+5.1%1 1-06.0%1-110.5%1-29.1%1-35.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-02.0%2-13.5%2-23.0%2-31.8%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.6% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 61.7% — — —

Over 2.5 47.4% — — —

Over 3.5 22.2% — — —

BTTS 48.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.1%

A 62% / xG 0.7-1.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.7%

#2 0–2 13.6%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCSA0.7

Bukovyna1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UCSA · PPG 1.31

BUKOVYNA · PPG 2.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.85) vs Home AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

UCSA (H) 12.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bukovyna (A) 61.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UCSA face Bukovyna in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCSA a 13% chance, the draw 26% and Bukovyna 62%, so Bukovyna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for UCSA and 1.7 for Bukovyna (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCSA are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 2.85 for Bukovyna. This match finished 0-5.

UCSA vs Bukovyna Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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