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Dalian Yingbo vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 12 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 12:00

Dalian Yingbo

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Qingdao West C.

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWD

// Model verdict

Home 57% chance

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.3%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-111.0%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.7%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 59.2% 1.69 -11.3%

Draw 25.5% 27.8% 3.60 -4.9%

Away win 22.0% 22.0% 4.55 +0.1%

Over 2.5 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Over 3.5 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -11.8%

BTTS 52.1% 57.8% 1.73 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 52% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Yingbo1.8

Qingdao West C.0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN YINGBO · PPG 2.40

QINGDAO WEST C. · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Yingbo (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -11.3%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.9%

Qingdao West C. (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Yingbo face Qingdao West C. in China - Super League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Yingbo a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Qingdao West C. 22%, so Dalian Yingbo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dalian Yingbo and 0.9 for Qingdao West C. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Yingbo are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.50 for Qingdao West C.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 2-3.

Dalian Yingbo vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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