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Dalian Yingbo vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 12:00

Dalian Yingbo

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Qingdao West C.

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.3%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.9%1-111.0%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.7%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 59.2% 1.69 -11.3%

Draw 25.5% 27.8% 3.60 -4.9%

Away win 22.0% 22.0% 4.55 +0.1%

Over 2.5 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Over 3.5 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -11.8%

BTTS 52.1% 57.8% 1.73 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 52% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Yingbo1.8

Qingdao West C.0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN YINGBO · PPG 2.40

QINGDAO WEST C. · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Yingbo (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -11.3%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.9%

Qingdao West C. (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Yingbo face Qingdao West C. in China - Super League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Yingbo a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Qingdao West C. 22%, so Dalian Yingbo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dalian Yingbo and 0.9 for Qingdao West C. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Yingbo are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.50 for Qingdao West C.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 2-3.

Dalian Yingbo vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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