Today / China - Super League / Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Hainiu

Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 12 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 12:00

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Qingdao Hainiu

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.7%0-24.7%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.8%1-111.0%1-27.7%1-33.6%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.0%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.5%3-14.9%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.9%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 74.6% 1.34 -42.5%

Draw 25.6% 21.5% 4.65 +11.4%

Away win 31.5% 13.2% 7.60 +139.4%

Over 2.5 59.4% 69.0% 1.45 -13.9%

Over 3.5 36.2% 46.5% 2.15 -22.2%

BTTS 58.6% 61.7% 1.62 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.6%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beijing Guoan1.6

Qingdao Hainiu1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.00

QINGDAO HAINIU · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Beijing Guoan (H) 42.9%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -42.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +11.4%

Qingdao Hainiu (A) 31.5%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +139.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beijing Guoan face Qingdao Hainiu in China - Super League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beijing Guoan a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Qingdao Hainiu 32%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Beijing Guoan and 1.4 for Qingdao Hainiu (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Qingdao Hainiu. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +139.4%. This match finished 4-2.

Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Hainiu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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