Today / China - Super League / Tianjin JT vs Chengdu

Tianjin JT vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 12 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 11:35

Tianjin JT

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Chengdu

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Away 62% chance

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-18.7%0-29.9%0-37.6%0-4+7.4%1 1-03.7%1-18.6%1-29.8%1-37.4%1-4+7.3%2 2-01.8%2-14.2%2-24.8%2-33.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.6%3-31.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.5% 20.0% 5.00 -22.5%

Draw 23.7% 27.4% 3.65 -8.1%

Away win 63.8% 61.3% 1.63 +4.0%

Over 2.5 60.1% 55.6% 1.80 +8.2%

Over 3.5 41.3% 33.9% 2.95 +21.8%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 64% / xG 1.0-2.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.9%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 1–2✓ 9.8%

#4 0–3 7.6%

#5 1–3 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tianjin JT1.0

Chengdu2.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TIANJIN JT · PPG 0.60

CHENGDU · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

62%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Tianjin JT (H) 12.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -22.5%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.1%

Chengdu (A) 63.8%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tianjin JT face Chengdu in China - Super League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tianjin JT a 13% chance, the draw 24% and Chengdu 64%, so Chengdu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tianjin JT and 2.3 for Chengdu (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tianjin JT are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 2.60 for Chengdu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Tianjin JT vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions