Today / China - Super League / Tianjin JT vs Chengdu

Tianjin JT vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 11:35

Tianjin JT

PPG 0.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Chengdu

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-18.7%0-29.9%0-37.6%0-4+7.4%1 1-03.7%1-18.6%1-29.8%1-37.4%1-4+7.3%2 2-01.8%2-14.2%2-24.8%2-33.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.6%3-31.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.5% 20.0% 5.00 -22.5%

Draw 23.7% 27.4% 3.65 -8.1%

Away win 63.8% 61.3% 1.63 +4.0%

Over 2.5 60.1% 55.6% 1.80 +8.2%

Over 3.5 41.3% 33.9% 2.95 +21.8%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 64% / xG 1.0-2.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.9%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 1–2✓ 9.8%

#4 0–3 7.6%

#5 1–3 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tianjin JT1.0

Chengdu2.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TIANJIN JT · PPG 0.60

CHENGDU · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Tianjin JT (H) 12.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -22.5%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.1%

Chengdu (A) 63.8%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tianjin JT face Chengdu in China - Super League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tianjin JT a 13% chance, the draw 24% and Chengdu 64%, so Chengdu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Tianjin JT and 2.3 for Chengdu (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tianjin JT are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 2.60 for Chengdu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Tianjin JT vs Chengdu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions