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Modena vs Frosinone Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Modena

PPG 1.65 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Frosinone

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.9%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.7%1-112.6%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.9%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 40.0% 2.50 +11.5%

Draw 26.6% 29.0% 3.45 -8.2%

Away win 28.8% 37.6% 2.66 -23.4%

Over 2.5 45.3% 60.6% 1.65 -25.3%

Over 3.5 24.0% 38.5% 2.60 -37.6%

BTTS 49.9% 66.7% 1.50 -25.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 8.9%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Modena1.4

Frosinone1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MODENA · PPG 1.65

FROSINONE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.65) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Modena (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +11.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.2%

Frosinone (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Modena face Frosinone in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Modena a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Frosinone 29%, so Modena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Modena and 1.1 for Frosinone (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Modena are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 2.00 for Frosinone. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Modena vs Frosinone Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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