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Maitland vs Cooks Hill Utd Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 10:00

Maitland

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cooks Hill Utd

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.4%0-21.6%0-31.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-01.9%1-14.1%1-24.4%1-33.2%1-4+2.9%2 2-02.6%2-15.8%2-26.3%2-34.6%2-4+4.2%3 3-02.5%3-15.5%3-26.0%3-34.4%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-17.8%4+-28.6%4+-36.2%4+-4+5.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 57.1% 1.75 -8.5%

Draw 21.5% 25.0% 4.00 -8.4%

Away win 26.3% 29.4% 3.40 -6.3%

Over 2.5 78.8% 73.5% 1.36 +7.2%

Over 3.5 73.9% 55.6% 1.80 +33.0%

BTTS 66.7% 73.5% 1.36 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob66.7%

H 52% / xG 2.8-2.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 3–2 6.0%

#3 2–1 5.8%

#4 3–1 5.5%

#5 1–1 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maitland2.8

Cooks Hill Utd2.2

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 73.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MAITLAND · PPG 0.75

COOKS HILL UTD · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Maitland (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -8.5%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.4%

Cooks Hill Utd (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maitland face Cooks Hill Utd in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maitland a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Cooks Hill Utd 26%, so Maitland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Maitland and 2.2 for Cooks Hill Utd (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maitland are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.60 for Cooks Hill Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Maitland vs Cooks Hill Utd Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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