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Italy - Serie B
Regular Season - 35
Stadio Danilo Martelli· Mantova
Saturday, April 18, 2026
13:00
Mantova
PPG 1.59
0-2
MISS
Avellino
PPG 0.82
Home· +38.6%
✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
63.0%
Odds: 2.20
EV: +38.6%
Draw
20.4%
Odds: 3.25
EV: -33.7%
Away
16.6%
Odds: 3.25
EV: -46.1%
Model lean:
Home
Result: Away ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
58.1%
Odds: 2.00
+16.2%
Over 3.5
35.7%
Odds: 3.50
+24.9%
BTTS
53.7%
Odds: 1.73
-7.1%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘
BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
2-0
✘
2nd
1-0
✘
3rd
2-1
✘
4th
1-1
✘
5th
3-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Mantova
2.06
Avellino
0.95
Model Suggestion
Home
+38.6%
ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market:
Home.
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value
75%
MODERATE_HOME
Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away POOR (0.82)