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Mantova vs Avellino Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Mantova

PPG 1.59 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Avellino

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+38.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.7%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.1%1-19.6%1-24.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.2%3-16.8%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.7%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 45.5% 2.20 +38.6%

Draw 20.4% 30.8% 3.25 -33.7%

Away win 16.6% 30.8% 3.25 -46.1%

Over 2.5 58.1% 50.0% 2.00 +16.2%

Over 3.5 35.7% 28.6% 3.50 +24.9%

BTTS 53.7% 57.8% 1.73 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.7%

H 63% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 1–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mantova2.1

Avellino1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTOVA · PPG 1.59

AVELLINO · PPG 0.82

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Mantova (H) 63.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +38.6%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -33.7%

Avellino (A) 16.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -46.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mantova face Avellino in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mantova a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Avellino 17%, so Mantova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Mantova and 1.0 for Avellino (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mantova are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.82 for Avellino. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Mantova vs Avellino Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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