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Bari vs Venezia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Bari

PPG 1.35 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Venezia

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-111.4%0-210.6%0-36.6%0-4+4.7%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.6%2-14.9%2-24.6%2-32.9%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.8%3-11.5%3-21.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.3% 14.3% 7.00 +28.1%

Draw 22.3% 23.0% 4.35 -3.0%

Away win 59.4% 69.4% 1.44 -14.5%

Over 2.5 53.0% 63.7% 1.57 -16.8%

Over 3.5 30.7% 41.7% 2.40 -26.3%

BTTS 51.2% 59.9% 1.67 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob51.2%

A 59% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 11.4%

#2 0–2 10.6%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 1–2 9.9%

#5 0–3✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bari0.9

Venezia1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BARI · PPG 1.35

VENEZIA · PPG 1.59

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.35), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Bari (H) 18.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +28.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -3.0%

Venezia (A) 59.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bari face Venezia in Italy - Serie B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bari a 18% chance, the draw 22% and Venezia 59%, so Venezia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bari and 1.9 for Venezia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bari are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.59 for Venezia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Bari vs Venezia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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